Iran, Epstein, ICE and more

Tonight I’m marking the four-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and what it’s done to both countries’ futures: staggering casualty estimates, Russia’s war economy (a huge share of the federal budget now going to military/security), the burn-down of Putin’s rainy-day fund, investment drying up, and a demographic crisis that could haunt Russia for generations.

Then we pivot to the US: Trump’s big prime-time speech and the political reality around him—sliding approval, independents turning, the House suddenly in play, and the Epstein story metastasizing again (including a disturbing allegation and the Mar-a-Lago shooter angle).

We’ll also dig into the warning signs around Iran—why Rubio/CIA briefing the Gang of 8 matters, what Gen. Dan Caine reportedly told Trump about casualty risk and depleted stockpiles, and reporting that even with a carrier on the way, the US capacity for sustained strikes may be shorter than people assume—plus the public opinion split, including notable Republican skepticism.

And from there it’s the chaos at home: protests killing a proposed ICE facility in New Hampshire, Trump’s Greenland “hospital ship” claim getting contradicted by the Pentagon, a bizarre Pentagon fight with Anthropic over AI limits on surveillance and autonomous weapons, new tariffs kicking in overnight, and a MAGA family’s deportation nightmare that shows how “only the worst of the worst” is turning into something very different—capped by a new poll finding most Americans think Trump has become more erratic with age.

Here’s the main-topic chapter list:

1. Opening / tech issues / getting live on all platforms — 00:00:02

2. Ukraine: 4-year anniversary — 00:03:27

3. Trump State of the Union tonight — 00:11:27

4. Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump “more erratic with age” — 00:16:10

5. Joe Rogan + statins misinformation — 00:16:27

6. Epstein files: DOJ withholding/removing material (NPR/Roger Sollenberger reporting) — 00:21:01

7. Mar-a-Lago shooter — 00:27:50

8. Iran: Rubio/CIA briefing + strike talk — 00:30:33

9. ICE facility in New Hampshire canceled after protests — 00:39:32

10. Greenland: Trump claim vs Pentagon/WSJ reporting — 00:35:33

11. Hegseth vs Anthropic/Claude + Pentagon AI dispute — 00:43:23

12. Banks checking citizenship / “show papers” idea — 00:47:05

13. MAGA deportation story (NJ.com) — 00:49:52

14. DJI robovac hack / camera access risk — 00:57:03

15. Ukraine wrap: Canada aid / peace-deal reporting — 01:01:36

Additional end-of-show topics (from the transcript):

1. Dog health update / mobility — 01:04:50

2. State of the Union runtime chatter (how long it’ll be / streaming it) — 01:05:14

3. White House blaming Biden for the economy (“Trump’s economy” framing) — 01:06:34

4. Stock market talk: US vs rest-of-world performance under Trump — 01:13:14

5. Personal finance Q&A: index funds vs individual stocks — 01:19:05

6. Bogleheads-style investing resource + expat taxes / moving to Europe angle — 01:23:30