Iran War Update

Tonight’s show is a snapshot of a White House and a war effort that are both spiraling — and the through-line is incompetence dressed up as confidence. Domestically, the Kristi Noem mess keeps getting uglier: she’s reportedly out not because of the “murder” scandal, but because the TV coverage was too toxic, so she gets parked in a fake new job while Corey Lewandowski also heads for the exits. And in peak Trump-world logic, Sen. Markwayne Mullin is reportedly being tapped as the replacement because Trump likes how he looks on television. That’s the hiring rubric. We’re all just living inside it.

On the battlefield side, the war’s toll keeps rising and the information space is getting even dirtier. The Pentagon has now released the names of two additional US servicemembers killed in Kuwait by an Iranian drone: Major Jeffrey O’Brien and Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan. At the same time, rumors flew that Iran shot down two US planes — US officials deny it, though one was reportedly said to be over southern Iraq. And the region looks like it’s becoming a target map: Azerbaijan reportedly hit as Iran tries to disrupt rerouted Europe–Asia flight paths, Qatari fighter jets reportedly intercepted Iranian bombers that came within minutes of striking al-Udeid, a tanker was hit by a large explosion off Kuwait causing an oil spill, and a key refinery in Bahrain was reportedly hit by Iranian missiles and drones.

Then comes the part that hits everybody’s wallet — the war is now an energy crisis on a countdown clock. US crude jumped 8.5% to just over $81, Brent climbed to about $85, and both benchmarks have been ripping higher this week. White House aides are reportedly panicking over gas prices, with the national average up about 27 cents since the war began, and reports of sharp spikes in places like DC and parts of the country — while jet fuel prices have doubled. Trump’s response to Reuters on rising gas prices is basically: I don’t care, it’s more important, and “if they rise, they rise.” Meanwhile Europe is getting hammered too: natural gas prices reportedly jumped 53% in just days, tied to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and strikes hitting Qatari LNG production. And the Strait itself is flashing red — roughly 80 oil and gas tankers normally pass through daily, but CNN cited S&P Global data showing zero transits on Wednesday, after only a few the day before, compared to dozens right before the war began.

Finally, we’re going to connect the political incentives to the escalation — because the messaging is getting as reckless as the operations. Trump is claiming Iran reached out to “make a deal” and that the war is “ahead of schedule,” even as the stated goals keep changing by the hour. He’s also reportedly saying Iran has to “approve” their next leader with him — which tells you a lot about how he thinks the world works. Inside the administration, Stephen Miller is out here arguing Trump can sell a new war as “anti-war” because the military is “no longer woke,” while polling shows MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly back the strikes even as non-MAGA Republicans are more split.

And there’s reportedly an internal fight over whether to send US troops into Iran — Rubio warning against a long entanglement, Hegseth pushing the other direction. We’ll also dig into the machinery of this war: reports of talks to buy Ukrainian-made drone interceptors, the sheer burn rate of Patriot missiles, and the unnerving detail that an AI pairing (“Maven, powered by Claude”) is reportedly accelerating targeting decisions. Plus the side shows — like Jeanne Pirro claiming she’s still investigating Biden over an autopen — and the broader geopolitical tremors, including reports about Poland discussing nukes and Finland weighing changes to nuclear-weapons transit rules.