John E Hoover
@iamjohncullen·83.9K subscribers·663 videos
49. Cognitive biases in risk management - Normalcy bias - Alex Sidorenko
Posted
January 14, 2017
Views
2,526
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48
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January 14, 2017
2,526
48
5
2.10%
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3:01Now PlayingThe normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations.
The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred, it never will occur. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.
The opposite of normalcy bias would be overreaction, or "worst-case thinking" bias,[1][2] in which small deviations from normality are dealt with as signaling an impending catastrophe.
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