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Another poll predicts Tory wipeout - but will it actually happen? | LBC analysis
Posted
April 3, 2024
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April 3, 2024
176,299
1,931
1,092
1.71%
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14:35Now PlayingThe Conservatives are facing a worse election defeat than in 1997 at the next general election, as Labour prepare for a landslide victory that could give them more than 400 seats, the latest election poll has revealed.
YouGov's latest seat-by-seat poll will cause further headaches for Rishi Sunak, predicting even worse elections than an equivalent poll in January earlier this year.
Sir Keir Starmer's Labour will be handed a majority of 154 after winning 403 seats in the House of Commons, according to the poll.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, will have just 155 seats - losing 210 seats from the last general election in 2019 - according to the prediction which uses multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling.
Several prominent Tory MPs are also predicted to have their own 'Portillo Moment' and could lose their seat.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and leading Brexiteer Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their seats.
According to the pollsters, Rishi Sunak is heading for a worse result than John Major's 1997 defeat, when the then-Tory leader won a total of 165 seats.
The poll for Starmer, however, could put him on course to win a victory on par with that of Tony Blair in his first term of office. In 1997. The party's longest-serving prime minister won 418 of the available 659 Commons seats.
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