Reading between the polls: How badly are Labour doing, really? | LBC

New polls suggest pessimism in the UK, with around half believing next year will be worse than 2024. This comes as particularly bad news for Labour's new government, with Starmer losing almost half his MPs if an election were to be held tomorrow.

To make sense of it all, polling expert Scarlett Maguire joins Dom Joly.

Labour would lose nearly 200 seats and five parties would each get more than 30 seats if an election was held today, a new major poll has suggested.

A poll by More In Common which was commissioned by The Sunday Times said that Labour would be reduced to 228 from the 411 that Starmer's party won in July.

The study suggest that Labour would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the Scottish National Party after its so-called "loveless landslide".

Labour would, however, still be the largest party in Parliament if the poll is accurate - with a lead of six seats over the Conservatives who would take 222.

Reform UK would garner 72 seats in a massive surge for Nigel Farage's party - to become the UK's third-largest party.

The Liberal Democrat surge seen in July would be broadly sustained as Sir Ed Davey's party would take 58 seats, according to the poll.

The Green Party would lose three seats and get taken down to two MPs.

The implied national vote share of the More In Common poll has Labour on 25 per cent, the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Reform on 21 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent, the Greens on 8 per cent, the SNP on 2 per cent and other parties on 3 per cent.

Seven cabinet ministers would lose their seat in the Labour drop off, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting, deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.

Others set to lose their seats according to the poll would be Defence Secretary John Healey, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds.

The model, was created with survey data of more than 11,000 people, and points toward increased fragmentation between parties.

The hypothetical parliament would be an unstable showing as no party would be able to form a majority government.

To hold a majority in the House of Commons, a political party needs to win more than half the seats — at least 326 out of the possible 650.

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