Are the markets already turning on Andy Burnham?

Andy Burnham's speech has made the economic task at hand more difficult, as borrowing costs spiked in the wake of his address to the House.

Government long-term borrowing costs have been sent soaring to their highest levels for 28 years, amid a global bond sell-off partly linked to signs of escalation in the Middle East conflict and the concern that inflation could follow.

The yield on 10-year gilts stretched to 5.22% from 5.15% on Friday, while the 30-year hit 5.85%, up from 5.79% on Friday.

The 10-year gilt had earlier traded as high as 5.25%, an 18-year high, and the 30-year at 5.89%, a level last seen in 1998.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said the rise in bond yields poses a “major challenge” for the Chancellor ahead of next month’s Budget.

She said: “Every basis point increase in the cost of borrowing in the UK adds to debt servicing costs, which needs to be paid by the public purse. Since the spring, the UK’s interest-only bill has risen by up to £6 billion by the end of this parliament. This is a large hole for the Chancellor to fill next month."

Speaking to LBC, Burnham ally Lord Jim O'Neill said that the rise in rates would lead to higher mortgage rates for homeowners as soon as this autumn.

He told Tonight with Andrew Marr: “Tough day today. 10-year gilt yields, or 10-year interest rates, risen by a quarter of a percent, which for debt in one day is a lot. We’ve not had that since Liz Truss days, really. […]

"And it was when I woke up this morning, I thought, ‘Uh-oh, this is going to be tough.’ I didn’t think it’d be quite this tough, but it’s been a tough day.”

Despite the pessimism, Lord O'Neill did stress that much of the rise was not due to UK policy.

He told Andrew: “I mean, I would say 80% of this has got nothing to do with the UK, except for the fact we’re in a tough starting position.

"For something, some of the discussion I had on the weekend, I checked last Friday’s levels compared to one year ago. Our 10-year yields had risen slightly less than both Germany and the U.S. So it wasn’t about us at all.

"However, the scale of the move today changes that a little bit. But the underlying issue is there are many governments all over the world, and it’s persisted since COVID and it’s got worse with Donald Trump, think they can just spend whatever, and eventually this miraculous growth is going to appear. And it’s a fantasy.”

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