June 23, 2026
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The recent 60 day sanctions waiver on Iranian Regime oil reveals a critical flaw in current US diplomatic strategy. By granting the Islamic Republic immediate access to billions in global oil revenue, the administration has fundamentally undermined its own leverage. The waiver was issued under the premise of behavioral change, specifically allowing IAEA inspectors into the country and securing the Strait of Hormuz. However, the financial reward preceded any verified compliance. Iranian Regime officials have already publicly denied the IAEA agreement, meaning the US injected massive capital into the IRGC based on an unverified promise. This is a clear miscalculation in negotiation mechanics.
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