Was 10/7 LIHOP?

The scale of Israel’s intelligence failure—why the Israeli government did not act more preemptively on at least one known intelligence warning—is almost as shocking as the brutality and success of the Hamas attack itself on October 7. As the Israel Defense Forces expand their ground incursion into Gaza, and with the death toll in the ensuing war already in the thousands, it is not premature to reflect on the specific missteps that made “Israel’s 9/11” possible. A full reckoning will require months if not years of investigation but as scholars of terrorism, armed conflict, and political science, we highlight three potential major intelligence failures that any intelligence investigation should focus on to learn from this failure.According to a number of intel officials as reported by the NYT et al., the recent attack's success, as per their initial assessment, was due to a series of security lapses within Israel's intelligence community and military. These lapses included:

▇ Intelligence officers failing to monitor critical communication channels utilized by Palestinian attackers.

▇ Excessive reliance on border surveillance equipment, easily disabled by assailants, which enabled them to infiltrate military installations and fatally ambush sleeping soldiers.

▇ Concentration of commanders within a solitary border base that was swiftly overwhelmed during the initial phase of the incursion, impeding communication with other armed forces.

▇ A readiness to accept declarations from Gazan military leaders, even on monitored private channels, asserting their lack of preparation for combat.

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