Is this the end of Labour in Wales? | Caerphilly by-election report

For over a century, Labour has dominated politics in Wales. They're the most successful political party anywhere in the democratic world. Born in the coalfields and forged in solidarity, Labour’s roots in Caerphilly run deep.

In this PoliticsJOE report, Laura travels to the heart of South Wales to ask: is Caerphilly the canary in Labour’s (ex)coal mine? As Reform UK and Plaid Cymru surge, polling shows Labour’s vote share collapsing in one of its safest seats. What’s behind the shift, and could this by-election spell the end of Welsh Labour’s reign?

Laura speaks to local voters, historians, and candidates to uncover how decades of deindustrialisation, disillusionment with Westminster, and anger at Keir Starmer’s leadership have reshaped Welsh politics. From the legacy of the miners’ strike to the heated debate over immigration and the Welsh Government’s “Nation of Sanctuary” plan, this by-election has become a lightning rod for wider frustrations.

In a town once built on coal and collective identity, some see Labour’s values as lost, while others fear the rise of division and scapegoating. With Plaid appealing to a renewed sense of Welsh identity and Reform tapping into discontent on the right, Caerphilly could become the battleground that defines the next era of Welsh politics.

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