Geo-Strategy #7: Who Killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi?

In his May 24, 2024 class Jiang Xueqin examines if Iran President Ebrahim Raisi's death was an accident or an assassination:

On May 19, Iran President Raisi's helicopter crashed into the mountains, killing all nine on board. Most experts believe it was a weather-related accident.

There are skeptics who believed that powerful forces within Iran stood to gain from Raisi's death. Raisi was expected to become the next Iranian supreme leader, and now Mojtaba Khamenei (the current Ayatollah's second son) is the favorite.

Under the current Ayatollah, the 250,000-strong Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have dominated Iran's economy, politics, and foreign policy. Their critics believe they have inflamed tensions in the Middle East, while causing stagnation and corruption at home.

If Raisi were to have become Ayatollah, he would have to attempt to curb the power and influence of the IRGC in order to establish his own authority. Because Mojtaba Khamenei would be inexperienced and unpopular, he would have to rely on the support of the IRGC.

This would allow the IRGC to pursue its most ambitious foreign policy goals, which would ultimately force a confrontation between the United States and Iran.