The Mechanics of the Big Cycle

If you study the patterns of history, you find interrelated cycles in which global economic and political orders rise and inevitably break down due to specific cause-effect relationships playing out through time.

In my research, I’ve found that when you have the combination of the monetary order breaking down — like a debt crisis — and the internal political order breaking down, you have a very serious situation.

I believe we are facing one of these inflection points today. With our current levels of prosperity, it can be difficult to see this happening in real-time. But when you step back and look at the mechanics, the broader picture begins to emerge.

I recently had the opportunity to discuss this perspective with the IMF. And for those who are interested, I dive into what these mechanics are and how they work in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Debt Crisis — specifically Chapter 8. I hope you read it and let me know if you see things the same way.

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