Ryan McBeth
@RyanMcBethProgramming·1.1M subscribers·2K videos
When will the US Strike Iran?
Posted
February 21, 2026
Views
180,330
Likes
10,096
Comments
1,334
Engagement
6.34%
February 21, 2026
180,330
10,096
1,334
6.34%
Every word spoken in this episode is indexed. Type any phrase to jump straight to the moment it was said.
Type any word or phrase that may have been spoken. Click a result to seek the player to that exact moment.
Try a name, a topic, or a quoted line
9:56Now PlayingGet my Department of The Boat People shirt at
If the United States strikes Iran, when would it likely happen?
In this video, I break down the likely strike window using the same factors military planners consider: carrier positioning, transit timelines, moon phase illumination, weather conditions over key targets, and even the operational impact of Ramadan.
Right now, the U.S. has one carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea — what I like to call the “Sea of America” — and another en route. At $6.5 million per day to operate a carrier strike group, these assets don’t deploy for fun. Timing matters.
I'll look at:
* Transit timelines for a second carrier entering strike range
* Historical moon phase data from 20 major air operations since 1980
* Weather forecasts over Tehran, Isfahan, Natanz, Fordow, Shiraz, Qom, and Tabriz
* Why IRGC targets would likely be prioritized over Artesh installations
* How conscription changes the internal stability calculus
* And why a narrow window between February 25th–27th may be optimal
This isn’t political commentary. It’s operational analysis.
All of the spreadsheet data on moon phases and historical air operations is available for paid members at RyanMcBeth.Substack.com.
For uncensored video, check out my substack at:
Like my shirts? Get your own at:
Want a personalized greeting:
Watch all of my long form videos:
Twitter:
@ryanmcbeth
Instagram:
@therealryanmcbeth
BlueSky
@ryanmcbeth
Reddit:
/r/ryanmcbeth
Join the conversation:
Want to send me something?
Ryan McBeth Productions LLC
8705 Colesville Rd.
Suite 249
Silver Spring, MD 20910
USA
Sentinel Indexing in Progress
Metadata and chapters are available. Claim extraction for this episode is pending.
All video content is delivered via YouTube embedded players in accordance with the YouTube Terms of Service. Sentinel provides research tools that promote discovery and accountability across political media.
