When will the US Strike Iran?
February 21, 2026
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9:56Now PlayingWhen will the US Strike Iran?
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If the United States strikes Iran, when would it likely happen?
In this video, I break down the likely strike window using the same factors military planners consider: carrier positioning, transit timelines, moon phase illumination, weather conditions over key targets, and even the operational impact of Ramadan.
Right now, the U.S. has one carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea — what I like to call the “Sea of America” — and another en route. At $6.5 million per day to operate a carrier strike group, these assets don’t deploy for fun. Timing matters.
I'll look at:
* Transit timelines for a second carrier entering strike range
* Historical moon phase data from 20 major air operations since 1980
* Weather forecasts over Tehran, Isfahan, Natanz, Fordow, Shiraz, Qom, and Tabriz
* Why IRGC targets would likely be prioritized over Artesh installations
* How conscription changes the internal stability calculus
* And why a narrow window between February 25th–27th may be optimal
This isn’t political commentary. It’s operational analysis.
All of the spreadsheet data on moon phases and historical air operations is available for paid members at RyanMcBeth.Substack.com.
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