Why It's So Hard to Predict Russian Mobilization

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My video on the Russian antiwar party Yabloco

Is Vladimir Putin preparing to mobilize another 300,000—or even 500,000—Russians for the war in Ukraine?

There are growing signs that Russia is preparing for the possibility of another major call-up, but preparation is not the same thing as a decision. In this video, I break down what we actually know, what Ukraine is claiming, what Russia is saying, and what another mobilization would really mean on the battlefield.

We’ll look at Russia’s chaotic 2022 mobilization, how long it would take to turn reservists into useful soldiers, whether Russian recruiting is beginning to slow, where additional troops would likely be sent, and whether hundreds of thousands of new men could actually change the course of the war.

Most importantly, we’ll separate evidence from speculation.

Putin can mobilize civilians. Turning them into an effective army is considerably harder.

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#Russia #Ukraine #Putin #UkraineWar #Military #Mobilization #Geopolitics #OSINT

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