Talking Feds with Harry Litman
@talkingfeds·446K subscribers·3K videos
Why polls tell us little or nothing about who will win the November Election
Posted
February 24, 2024
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February 24, 2024
20,204
1,905
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22:39Now PlayingHarry talks with national polling expert Mike Podhorzer, founder of the Analyst Institute and author of the newsletter “Weekend Reading.” Podhorzer explains why our national obsession with polls – a phenomenon he has coined “mad poll disease” – leads to dramatic overreliance on the latest polls, which typically have no predictive value about where the election is heading. One large reason that is true is that, as with our previous five elections, 2024 almost surely will be decided by six states, and communities within those states, whose margins are too small and subtle to be reflected in the run of polls. Moreover, the decisive factors in those states, and in America generally, turn on issues of values and community, rather than the raw demographic information we are accustomed to emphasizing. For viewers, anxious about the prospect of Trump’s return to power who gnash their teeth at the emergence of every unfavorable looking poll, the discussion should have a calming influence, at least insofar as the polls are concerned.
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