The Damage Report
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Midterm Election Swings PROVE Surprising Predictions
Posted
November 7, 2022
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25,475
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November 7, 2022
25,475
1,216
345
6.13%
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14:14Now PlayingAs the midterm elections conclude, here are our predictions for which candidates will come through in the end to win their elections. John Iadarola and Dan Evans break it down on The Damage Report.
Read more here:
Pollsters Have ‘No F*cking Idea What’s Going to Happen’ This Election
"If the pollsters and handicappers end up being spectacularly wrong on Election Night, there’s one group that won’t be too surprised: the pollsters and handicappers themselves.
The 2022 midterms could go exactly as modeled—a 20-some-odd-seat pickup for Republicans in the House and maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate—but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways. In either direction.
No one really knows because, like every election, pollsters are extrapolating their best guess based on a set of assumptions. But unlike previous elections, the assumptions are getting bigger.
According to Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report, the big problem is that “response rates suck.”
“We’re down to 1 percent of people on a good day who are willing to talk to a pollster for free,” he told The Daily Beast."
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