April 7, 2026
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21:57Now PlayingThe economist who predicted the 2008 financial crash lays out five specific scenarios for how the Iran war could end, ranging from negotiated peace to the complete destruction of civilisation. Professor Steve Keen assigns a 5% probability to nuclear weapons being used, explaining that destroying Iran would require hundreds of nuclear warheads because the country is virtually the size of Western Europe with a population of 90 million.
He reveals the Samson Doctrine, an Israeli strategy where if the state faces existential defeat, it unleashes total destruction on the surrounding region rather than surrender. He explains why this scenario becomes more likely as Iran demonstrates military capabilities that have surprised every Western intelligence agency, including a decentralised military split into 31 independent divisions designed specifically to survive a decapitation attack.
Discover:
• The five scenarios for how this war could end, from peace to civilisation collapse
• Why there is a 5% probability of nuclear weapons being used
• The Samson Doctrine and what happens if Israel faces existential defeat
• How Dubai loses $1.4 billion per day from a single drone attack
• Why Iran split its military into 31 independent divisions before the war
• The accusation that Trump is gaming oil markets for profit
• Why one person has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons
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