War Expert WARNS: "You Have No Idea What's Hidden"

The world's strategic oil reserves have dropped to their lowest level since 1983. President Trump said at the G7 summit: "We run out of reserves at about four weeks. It would be bedlam." Professor Robert Pape, who has been modelling the Iran war for 20 years and has advised every White House since 9/11, says that trajectory has not changed. The iceberg is still ahead, and there are not enough lifeboats for everybody.

He starts by showing why the US cannot simply destroy Iran's drone and missile capability. He holds up an image of a Shahed 136 drone next to a car to show the scale. These drones fit in a single room. They could be anywhere in an area 1.5 times the size of California. The terrain is mountainous, making it a three-dimensional problem, not two-dimensional. He builds a physical model on camera, layering drones into terrain and then covering them with more terrain until they disappear. When Steven suggests it's like trying to find a truck in California, Pape confirms: that is exactly the scale of the problem. Iran was making 55,000 of these drones per year before the war and has likely produced thousands more since April.

Even if the US found and destroyed every drone, shipping companies would not send their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Each tanker crossing the Strait carries between 700,000 and over a million barrels of oil. A single ship is a floating asset worth $300 million. The Pentagon cannot order private shipping companies to sail through a war zone. The crews would mutiny.

Discover:

• Why finding Iran's drones is like trying to find a truck in California

• How each oil tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz is a floating asset worth $300 million

• Why the US strategic oil reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1983

• How the Houthis just shut down the Red Sea oil pipeline hours before this recording

• Why President Trump said "we run out of reserves at about four weeks, it would be bedlam"

• The fork in the road: global economic crisis or letting Iran control Hormuz

• Why the midterm elections in three months are driving military decisions

• The Titanic metaphor and why "there's not enough lifeboats for everybody"

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