The REAL Reason The World Just Changed Forever

The man who predicted the 2008 crash says the Iran war has done something far more damaging than any military defeat. It has shown the world that American threats no longer work.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, says he speaks regularly with world leaders, particularly in Asia. What he is hearing is that countries across the region are reconsidering whether the United States will actually show up when it matters. For decades, the US maintained bases in allied countries as a counterbalancing influence against China. Those bases were a promise: if something happens, we will be there. That promise is now in question.

He explains the mechanics. China is already a larger trading partner than the United States for most countries. If China threatened to blockade semiconductor chips leaving Taiwan, the world's stock markets would crash. If China pressured the Philippines (which has a treaty with the US equivalent to NATO), would the American public support sending aircraft carriers to defend the Filipinos? He says the answer is increasingly no. And the Iran war is the reason everyone now knows it.

He draws a direct parallel to the British Empire. He remembers a time when the United States would simply hint to a country that it wanted something done a certain way, and it would happen. Not because of military force, but because of the totality of American power (economic, diplomatic, military). That power is eroding. The Iran war, he says, was the moment the "light bulb went off." Just as the Suez Canal crisis revealed that the British Empire could no longer enforce its will, the Strait of Hormuz has revealed the same about America.

Discover:

• Why the Iran war was "a big mistake" that exposed American vulnerability

• How countries in Asia are reconsidering whether the US will defend them

• The Suez Canal parallel that explains what is happening to American power

• Why China could crash world markets by blockading Taiwan chips for five days

• How the US went from hinting at countries to losing control of the Strait of Hormuz

• Why Dalio believes the future will be regional powers, not one superpower

• Where the UK and US sit on the 80-year decline cycle

• The objective measures Dalio uses across 500 years to diagnose a nation's health

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