Niall Ferguson’s 2026 Forecast: More War, More Antisemitism, Less Unity

Think for yourself. Subscribe to The Free Press today

In this year-end predictions episode, historian and Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson joins Bari Weiss to map the world heading into 2026—and his forecast is sobering. Ferguson argues we are firmly in “Cold War II,” with China replacing the Soviet Union as America’s primary rival, driving proxy conflicts, economic warfare, and rising geopolitical risk. He explains why China is unlikely to invade Taiwan in 2026, even as tensions intensify through trade, technology, and high-stakes Trump–Xi diplomacy. Ferguson assesses the grim outlook in Ukraine, where war is likely to grind on, the fragile ceasefire and unfinished conflicts in the Middle East, and the growing possibility of U.S. intervention in Venezuela. He closes with a stark warning about the global rise of antisemitic violence, calling it a defining and dangerous trend of the 2020s—and a moral test the West is failing to confront.