Niall Ferguson: Iran Thinks It’s Winning. They Might Be Right.

Late last night, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. But the first day has already proven rocky: Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel all reported missile and drone attacks from Iran; Israel carried out major air strikes against Hezbollah, raising questions about whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire; and Iran is attaching a series of stringent conditions to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

All of this comes as U.S. and Iranian delegations are expected to meet in Pakistan on Saturday to discuss two competing peace plans whose provisions are fundamentally at odds with each other. The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President J.D. Vance, who has expressed hesitance about the war from the very beginning.

It’s a crucial juncture in a war that has now stretched on for more than five weeks, with global ramifications. And few people are better suited to assess it than Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson. Today, I ask him: Who is winning this war? Will the Strait of Hormuz truly reopen? What would it mean if Iran imposed a transit fee and required vessels to coordinate passage with the Iranian military? How will the negotiations unfold? Can the administration come up with a deal that ends Iran’s control of the Strait? What does America misunderstand about Iran? And what has the Trump administration gotten wrong?