Is China Winning?

A decade ago, few people in Beijing would have predicted that China would challenge the U.S. anytime soon. China’s decades-long economic boom was slowing, and the government’s chokehold on free thought was sending ambitious people abroad. The Chinese establishment has abandoned that view in stages. When Brexit was approved, in 2016, the West seemed to be turning inward. The fight over COVID-19 vaccines provided a signal that the U.S. was splintering; the storming of the Capitol offered another.

For China, America’s retreat comes just as years of state investment, industrial policy, and diplomatic planning are paying off. In two decades, China has gone from producing about half as much electricity as the U.S. to generating more than twice as much, at far lower prices; in 2023, it installed more solar power than America has installed in its entire history. Evan Osnos reports on China’s tech competition with the U.S.