The People Vs the Politicians
The People Vs the Politicians
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2022: The GOP Gerrymander Dividend

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May 5, 2021

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Also, first glance, the 2020 census spells good news for Republicans in the 2022 elections and bad news for Democrats. But a closer look improves the odds for Democrats.

Population shifts mean the loss of House seats for big Blue states like California, Illinois and New York, and gains for Red states like Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Montana. But look again. Red states are also losing seats - Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. So census reapportionment of House seats may turn out to be a wash politically.

Republicans do have one big advantage - power trifectas controlling 23 states to just 15 for Democrats, preparing to redraw congressional district maps. But the GOP is not as dominant as a decade ago. Democratic governors are in position to block Republican lawmakers from extreme stacking of election districts in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Also, in half a dozen states, citizen movements have won reforms establishing independent citizen redistricting commissions or bipartisan mechanisms that prohibit politicians from either major party from rigging election maps to keep themselves in power.

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