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Why Trump is the Slight Favourite Heading into the Election
Posted
November 2, 2024
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November 2, 2024
333,642
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We're just a few days away from the US election, and the polls are truly within margin of error with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the knife edge from winning in a landslide. In this video, we're taking a look at the polls, and why, despite it all, Trump is still the slight favourite.
Harris' and Trump’s Paths to 270
Why Trump has (Sort of) Overtaken Harris in the Polls
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Sources:
Election models:
Nate Silver’s election model
538’s aggregator
Economist’s election model
Betting markets:
Bet365 and SkyBet
2016 forecasts:
Huffington Post
Actual results:
New York Times Comparing Poll Errors From 2022 And 2020
Why You Shouldn’t Pay Attention To Early Voting Data (Except In Nevada)
Jon Ralston Nevada Early Voting data blog/forecast
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