U.S.-China Crisis Communications in Dire Straits

How Can Washington and Beijing Manage the Risk of Conflict?

Amid intensifying strategic competition, mutual suspicions, and more frequent close encounters between U.S. and Chinese crafts in the air and at sea, there is a growing danger that an inadvertent crisis between the two countries could catalyze a military clash. And yet, both sides lack effective communication channels and other mechanisms that would reduce the risk of escalation. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently sought a meeting with his Chinese counterpart but was rebuffed by Beijing officials, who blamed Washington for the challenges in bilateral military-to-military communications.

U.S. efforts to establish crisis communication mechanisms have a history of failure. Some observers now speculate that it will take a bilateral crisis as potentially catastrophic as the Cuban missile crisis before U.S.-China crisis management mechanisms are institutionalized.

On June 13, USIP hosted a discussion on the challenges of U.S.-China crisis management. The conversation explored the assumptions that the United States and China hold about one other that could turn a crisis into a conflict, considered how to mitigate this possibility, and discussed previous efforts to negotiate improved communications with Beijing.

For more information about this event, please visit

Speakers:

Chad Sbragia

Research Analyst, Institute for Defense Analyses

Devin Ellis

Senior Faculty Specialist, College of Behavioral and Social Sciences, University of Maryland

Michael D. Swaine

Senior Research Fellow, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Carla Freeman, moderator

Senior Expert, China, U.S. Institute of Peace

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The United States Institute of Peace is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute, founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical and essential for U.S. and global security. In conflict zones abroad, the Institute works with local partners to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict. To reduce future crises and the need for costly interventions, USIP works with governments and civil societies to build local capacities to manage conflict peacefully. The Institute pursues its mission by linking research, policy, training, analysis and direct action to support those who are working to build a more peaceful, inclusive world. Learn more about USIP