Whats Going on with Shipping
@wgowshipping·697K subscribers·1.2K videos
Freedom of the Sea is Not Free: How War in Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Black Sea Overlap
Posted
July 29, 2026
Views
81,606
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7,695
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July 29, 2026
81,606
7,695
895
10.53%
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18:36Now PlayingIn this episode of What's Going on With Shipping?, Sal Mercogliano explores the dangerous convergence of maritime conflicts across three critical global chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Black Sea. By analyzing recent strikes—including Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels in the Caspian Sea and Houthi threats in the Red Sea—Sal illustrates how these disparate wars are morphing into a singular, massive threat to the principle of "Freedom of the Seas." From skyrocketing insurance rates to the redirection of global energy flows, this update breaks down how the current "furball" in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is redefining maritime trade and impacting the global economy.
Key Takeaways
⚓️The Nexus of Conflict: Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels in the Caspian Sea highlight how the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are becoming increasingly intertwined, creating a unified threat to global shipping.
⚓️Strait of Hormuz in "Freefall": Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 80%, with "dark transits" now accounting for 82% of all voyages as ship owners avoid the region due to a lack of security guarantees.
⚓️Skyrocketing Costs: War risk insurance for the Persian Gulf has surged from 1% to as high as 9% of vessel value, potentially adding up to $10 million in costs for a single transit—costs that are ultimately passed to consumers.
⚓️Suez Canal Logistics: Because very large crude carriers (VLCCs) cannot transit the Suez Canal fully loaded, the industry is shifting to complex ship-to-ship transfers and pipeline systems to bypass Red Sea threats.
⚓️China’s Withdrawal: Major Chinese shipping firms, including COSCO and China Merchants, have begun pulling their tankers from high-risk regions, removing a key stabilizing variable from the global oil market.
⚓️Black Sea Escalation: The sinking of the Golden Leo marks the first commercial vessel lost to Russian strikes since 2022, signaling a dangerous new phase in the maritime war as Ukraine’s harvest season approaches.
⚓️Shipping's Resilience: Despite these "flashing red" indicators, 80% of world cargo continues to move, demonstrating that while shipping is resilient like "water in a sidewalk," the increased friction makes global trade slower and more expensive.
Contact What's Going on With Shipping via:
Patreon: www.patreon.com/wgowshipping
Twitter: @mercoglianos
Bluesky: @mercoglianos.bsky.social
Facebook: @wgowshipping
Email: mercoglianosal@gmail.com
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