TLPP: How to Spot Statistical BS w/ Aaron Brown

Aaron Brown is a quantitative analyst, risk manager, and author of the new book Wrong Number: How to Extract Truth from a Blizzard of Quantitative Disinformation. https://amzn.to/4frmg3n

He's also about to debate gun control at the Soho Forum in August — and his preparation for that debate is a pretty good preview of what's in the book.

Topics include: why out of 28,000 gun control studies, the RAND Corporation found only 20 that weren't statistically crippled; the smoking analogy and what it tells us about legislation that runs ahead of evidence; why gun laws burden legitimate owners and not criminals; why we have a crime problem, not a gun problem; The Lancet paper that claimed US aid saved 92 million lives; how to spot three red flags that tell you a statistic is BS; and Wonder Bread's motto "Helps build strong bodies 12 ways" — which nobody ever actually wrote down.

Get the book → Wrong Number: How to Extract Truth from a Blizzard of Quantitative Disinformation https://amzn.to/4frmg3n

TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 — Intro — Aaron Brown and Wrong Number

0:34 — The Soho Forum gun control debate — and who he's up against

3:45 — The proposition: abolish all restrictions on adult firearm ownership

4:48 — Lou on navigating gun laws across state lines (NJ → PA → NY)

7:25 — The wide cultural divide: Scranton airport vs. any other airport with guns

9:04 — RAND Corporation: of 28,000 gun control studies, only 20 weren't crippled by errors

10:04 — The smoking analogy — legislation running ahead of the evidence

12:15 — Gun control laws only burden legitimate owners — not criminals

12:43 — The Glock switch ban and the AR-15 — targeting the popular, not the dangerous

15:18 — "Trump is a fascist" — and you want him to take the guns?

15:42 — Stop calling it a gun problem. It's a crime problem.

17:47 — We can identify the 1% of kids likely to commit 20–30% of violent crime

19:31 — Genetic markers for violence — and why that's controversial

20:48 — The Nordic prison model — does it work, and could it work here?

22:09 — Immigration data: why lumping everyone together gets you bad answers

25:20 — Lou's joke about open borders (for immigrants like his dad, not his cousins)

25:39 — Aaron's Jewish smuggler ancestors — blocked from junk dealing by licensing laws

27:04 — Did US aid really save 92 million lives? The Lancet paper that can't add up

29:13 — They saved 114% of the people — including 46M in China, which gets no aid

31:22 — Most published research findings are false — and we've known since 2005