Risks and benefits with Professor Fenton
June 19, 2026
1 hr 6 min
Full
261 of 364
June 19, 2026
Risks and benefits with Professor Fenton
0:00 / 1:06:11
Excerpt playback isn’t available for this episode — use the full-episode link.
Search the Record
Moment search isn’t open for this episode yet
When it opens, you’ll be able to type any phrase and jump straight to the second it was said.
Dr John Campbell Episodes Around June 19, 2026
Episode 261 of 364 — walk the feed in the order it was published.
1:06:11This episodeRisks and benefits with Professor Fenton
Summary
Relative risk versus absolute risk with Professor Norman Fenton, Mathematician, Professor of Risk Information Management
Professor Fenton, YouTube channel
http://youtube.com/@normanfenton81
And Sub stack
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/
normanfenton.com
Link to video on Norman's channel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va9aE98cFCA
Download the slides used in this video
https://d7694293-ffb8-4ed0-a014-3581d49070e4.usrfiles.com/ugd/d76942_9aec73e0e123495dba17f070437aadc8.pdf
Nor
What is risk information management?
Thinking about risk, what do we mean by absolute risk and relative risk
Sounds a bit like the level of risk can be presented in a way that gives a particular impression of a greater or a lessor risk or benefit?
Are there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of an increased benefit, or reduced risk from an intervention?
How could choosing RRR versus ARR influence the impression given for adverse reactions is medical journals?
Conversely
Are there occasions when a vested interest might want to give an impression of a decreased risk from an intervention?
So will RRR always be higher than ARR?
Why can the RRR vary between populations and vary over time?
So using one of the two measures to estimate the risk/benefit ratio would lead to different conclusions?
How could risk / benefit reporting be optimised in the medical literature?
Do you think the editors of prestigious international journals are aware of the differences between RRR and ARR?
In the case of this paper from the Journal of Expert Reviews of Vaccines
Efficacy and effectiveness of covid-19 vaccine - absolute vs. relative risk reduction
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9115787/
The original phase three data gave an efficacy for Pfizer vaccine, at preventing infection with SARS-CoV-2 of 95%, but it turns out the ARR was 0.84%
Why are these figures so different?
So is it fair to say that the ‘real world translation’ of the ARR of the Pfizer vaccine over 5 to 6 months of use increased to 3.7%?
What do we mean by number needed to treat?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Episode details and artwork are published by the show’s own feed. Sentinel plays short cited excerpts and links every episode back to its publisher.