Omicron estimates

UK case surge has started, R is 3 to 5

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10316627/Covid-cases-hit-463-000-Christmas-Eve-3-population-isolation.html?ito=email_share_article-top

Guy's and St Thomas's Hospital trust

10% off with Covid

Chris Whitty

Omicron wave, going to peak very quickly

Infections doubling every 2 to 3 days

NHS, reduction in supply and increase in demand

more records would be broken

Omicron as well as delta?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59664383

Number of omicron infections is rising very fast

Delta cases are flat

and that Delta is not going away, but being built on

If doubling time is every 3 days

Christmas Eve, cases + 462,704

Next few days, 2 million testing positive

Forced into 10 days isolation

Their contacts may also be symptomatic

Testing capacity exceeded

(Country currently averaging 790,000 PCR tests a day)

Professor Andrew Hayward (SAGE)

Outbreak spreading faster than tests can keep up

If you think about getting a year's worth of rain over a month, then you're going to get flooding and potentially severe flooding, no matter how much you've shored up your defences

Professor David Spiegelhalter (statistician)

Reduced socialisation will slow spread down

If it kept on this doubling every two days, you get to 11 million on Christmas Day,

and the entire country on New Year's Eve

Now, this is not sensible

Millions of people are going to catch this over the next few weeks and months

That we know that's going to happen

It could be considerably better than last winter, it could be worse

Zoe study

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time

Official UK data

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2021/modelling-potential-impact-omicron-england

Actual in hospital data

London in hospital data

Majority of cases in London are Omicron

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

South Africa now

Cases are rising steeply in all provinces

Cases in the 4th wave are higher than the peaks in all previous waves

Hospitalisations and deaths are not currently following this trend and,