ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly

<p>David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession.&nbsp;The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy)&nbsp;which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication.&nbsp;</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Alan on <a href="https://twitter.com/alanjdunne" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p>Follow David on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/drdavidkelly/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn.</strong></a></p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps: </strong></p><p><strong>02:42 -</strong> Introduction to David Kelly</p><p><strong>05:44 -</strong> What has become of the recession?</p><p><strong>08:38 -</strong> Are we missing an accident?</p><p><strong>11:09 -</strong> Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?</p><p><strong>13:29 -</strong> Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?</p><p><strong>14:52 -</strong> Are central bankers becoming arrogant?</p><p><strong>17:15 -</strong> What happened to the bond market?</p><p><strong>19:31 -</strong> High debt and high deficit - a new normal?</p><p><strong>21:48 -</strong> Kelly's outlook for the next decade</p><p><strong>23:42 -</strong> Inflation in the U.S.</p><p><strong>27:29 -</strong> A new equilibrium</p><p><strong>30:14 -</strong> Discussing inflation on a global scale</p><p><strong>33:35 -</strong> The state of the asset allocation environment</p><p><strong>35:37 -</strong> Should you look beyond the 60/40 portfolio?</p><p><strong>39:04 -</strong> The magnificent seven</p><p><strong>40:50 -</strong> A political mess</p><p><strong>44:51 -</strong> How will Artificial Intelligence impact the economy?</p><p><strong>47:55 -</strong> Managing the labour shortage</p><p><strong>50:13 -</strong> An all-time high misery</p><p><strong>51:36 -</strong> A discontent with the economy</p><p><strong>53:50 -</strong> An outlook of the political landscape</p><p><strong>56:14 -</strong> How does the shifting demographics impact the economy?</p><p><strong>57:57 -</strong> Is an aging population disinflationary?</p><p><strong>59:07 -</strong> Advice for investors</p><p><strong>01:01:34 - </strong>Thanks for listening</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. 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