GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters

<p>Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.</p><p><strong>-----</strong></p><p><strong>50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - </strong><a href="https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p>-----</p><p><br /></p><p>Follow Niels on <a href="https://twitter.com/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>YouTube</strong></a><strong> </strong>or via the <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>TTU website</strong></a>.</p><p><strong>IT’s TRUE </strong>? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>And you can get a free copy of my latest book “<strong>Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio</strong>” <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Learn more about the Trend Barometer <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</p><p>Send your questions to&nbsp;<a href="mailto:info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">info@toptradersunplugged.com</a></p><p>And please <strong>share this episode</strong> with a like-minded friend and <strong>leave an honest Rating &amp; Review</strong> on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>iTunes</strong></a>&nbsp;or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Spotify</strong></a> so more people can discover the podcast.</p><p>Follow Alan on <a href="https://twitter.com/alandunne2?lang=en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Twitter</strong></a>.</p><p>Follow Gregory on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregory-peters-a56a0b13/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>LinkedIn</strong></a><a href="https://twitter.com/darioperkins?lang=en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">.</a></p><p><strong>Episode TimeStamps: </strong></p><p><strong>02:42 - </strong>Introduction to Gregory Peters</p><p><strong>05:15 - </strong>What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?</p><p><strong>06:28 - </strong>Peters' perspective on the state of global macro</p><p><strong>11:44 - </strong>Peters' response to the inverted curve</p><p><strong>15:30 - </strong>Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?</p><p><strong>19:36 - </strong>Japanese investors in a tough spot</p><p><strong>22:11 - </strong>Financial repression and domestic bias</p><p><strong>24:11 - </strong>The yield is destiny</p><p><strong>27:28 - </strong>What range are we operating in?</p><p><strong>28:43 - </strong>Will inflation be stickier than we expect?</p><p><strong>33:03 - </strong>The impact of a changing globalization</p><p><strong>35:42 - </strong>Analyzing the poor productivity numbers</p><p><strong>38:05 - </strong>The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy</p><p><strong>42:54 - </strong>China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio</p><p><strong>44:27 - </strong>Opportunities in emerging markets</p><p><strong>46:47 - </strong>Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function</p><p><strong>49:13 - </strong>How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?</p><p><strong>51:29 - </strong>The possibilities of recession</p><p><strong>56:19 - </strong>Advice for other investors</p><p><strong>57:59 - </strong>Thanks for listening</p><p>Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved</p><p>----</p><p><strong>PLUS:</strong> Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:</p><p><strong>1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about </strong></p><p>In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. <a href="https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/ebooks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><strong>Click Here</strong></a></p><p><strong>2. 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