Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves Wins Mississippi Governor's Race

Republicans suffered setbacks in two states in off-year elections Tuesday, despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to rally supporters to the defense of GOP candidates down the ballot as the 2020 race heats up.

A staunchly pro-Trump Republican governor in Kentucky faced what could be an upset loss in his re-election bid. And in Virginia, Democrats seized both houses of the Legislature from Republicans, gaining full control of state government for the first time in 26 years.

The losses were largely attributable to local forces. Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin was deeply unpopular and other GOP officeholders did fairly well in the state, home to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Virginia Republicans entered the election with only a one-seat margin in each chamber in a state that has become more closely contested in presidential elections.

Even so, those races -- and other contests in Mississippi and New Jersey that saw no changes in power Tuesday -- were embraced by Trump and the Republican Party as key tests of the president’s popularity.

With one year until the presidential election, impeachment proceedings in Congress and the Democratic nomination battle just beginning, experts say Tuesday’s results have little predictive value for the 2020 election.

“It’s just too far out, and we don’t know what the circumstances will be next year,” said Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

With just four states conducting statewide elections on Tuesday, the sample was too small to extrapolate national trends. “These races tend to get a lot of attention, but I don’t think any of the states that we’re watching tonight are going to be any of the most competitive states that are going to be determining the presidency,” Kondik said on Tuesday night.

Trump campaigned aggressively for the Republican gubernatorial candidates, flying to Tupelo, Mississippi, last Friday to campaign for Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves, who won the governorship, and led a rally in Lexington, Kentucky, on Monday for Bevin.

“If they lose they’re going to say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world. You can’t let that happen to me,” Trump told the audience in Kentucky.

He clearly had an eye on election results Tuesday night, tweeting his congratulations to Kentucky Attorney General candidate Daniel Cameron, a Republican who became the first African-American elected as the state’s chief law enforcement officer. “Great going Daniel, proud of you!” Trump wrote.

Trump also boasted on Twitter of winning “5 out of 6 elections in Kentucky, including five great candidates that I spoke for and introduced last night.”

On Wednesday morning, Trump cast the results as a good sign for McConnell, who is up for re-election next year and whose continued support is critical to Trump’s ability to weather the impeachment inquiry. “Based on the Kentucky results, Mitch McConnell @senatemajldr will win BIG in Kentucky next year!” Trump tweeted.

Bevin trailed Democratic challenger, Attorney General Andy Beshear by 4,000 votes in unofficial results. Beshear claimed victory, but the Associated Press said it was too close to call.

Neither Bevin nor Trump conceded the loss. “The president just about dragged Governor Matt Bevin across the finish line, helping him run stronger than expected in what turned into a very close race at the end,” Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale said in a statement. “A final outcome remains to be seen.”

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez used the same metaphor earlier Tuesday to predict Bevin’s loss and tie it to Trump.

“It’s pretty amazing won Kentucky by 30 points and he had to go there last night to try to drag Matt Bevin across the finish line,” Perez told Bloomberg Television.

Democratic 2020 front-runner Joe Biden, who attended get-out-the-vote efforts in Virginia on Monday, said GOP candidates there avoided being tied to Trump.

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