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What Happens If Republicans Sweep Midterm Elections?
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November 7, 2022
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1:23Now PlayingVoters are picking and choosing between candidates on their state ballots, recent polling suggests, splitting their tickets between Democrats and Republicans in a way that’s helping struggling Democratic Senate candidates.
In most battleground states, Democratic Senate candidates who make conspicuous appeals to independent and Republican voters are outperforming their party’s candidate for governor.
Polling in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin suggests voters could elect a senator from one party and a governor from the other. In at least four of those states, it’s the Democratic candidate for Senate gaining more support than the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, sometimes by an average of 16 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages.
But it may not be enough to help Mark Kelly in Arizona, Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada or John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, all of whom are in tight races with their GOP opponents with one day until Election Day.
The number of ticket-splitting voters has declined in recent decades, as elections have become more nationalized and parties more polarized. But they can still be decisive in competitive races.
“In some of these races it doesn’t take that many voters to lead some of those swings we might see,” said Joel Sievert, who studies voter behavior at Texas Tech University.
Yet Twitter Inc. owner Elon Musk urged his 100 million followers on Monday to vote for Republicans, saying that divided government limits “the worst excesses of both parties.”
In Pennsylvania, Fetterman has launched a series of ads appealing to Republican voters. And he’s trying to counter the national headwinds by tailoring those ads to specific regions of the state, reminding voters of his Pennsylvania roots and casting his opponent, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, as an outsider.
“I’ve been a Republican since I voted for Richard Nixon,” said Shelley Howland of suburban Philadelphia, in one ad. “But I’m voting against Dr. Oz.”
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