Fed to 'Wait as Long as Possible' on Rate Cut, John Kerschner

John Kerschner, Head of U.S. Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson, talks about the rate outlook and fixed income opportunities amid labor weakening. Plus, a look into some interesting architecture at Yale.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair among President Donald Trump’s advisers as they look for a replacement for Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter.

Trump advisers are impressed with Waller’s willingness to move on policy based on forecasting, rather than current data, and his deep knowledge of the Fed system as a whole, the people said. Waller has met with the president’s team about the role, but has yet to meet with Trump himself, the people said on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, and Kevin Hassett, currently Trump’s National Economic Council director, also remain in contention for the job, the people said, which will open up when Powell’s tenure as chair expires in May 2026.

“President Trump will continue to nominate the most competent and experienced individuals,” White House Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “Unless it comes from President Trump himself, however, any discussion about personnel decisions should be regarded as pure speculation.”

A representative for the Fed declined to comment.

Trump said on Wednesday that the administration has narrowed the list of candidates for Fed chair to three people. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Vice President JD Vance and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick are on the search committee, Trump said.

Hassett has met with Trump to discuss the chair job and has also impressed both the president and the team, Bloomberg News has reported. Warsh interviewed for the job in 2017 but was ultimately passed over for Powell. In November, he was also considered to serve as Treasury secretary.

Waller’s Dissent

Last week, Waller was one of two Fed board members to vote against the central bank’s decision to hold its benchmark rate steady for a fifth consecutive time. He and his colleague Michelle Bowman, both Trump nominees, preferred a quarter-point reduction, citing growing signs of labor-market weakness.

A few days after the Fed announced its decision to hold interest rates, a jobs report showed that job growth cooled sharply over the previous three months, lending credence to Waller and Bowman’s dissent.

Waller’s views differed from those of Powell and other policymakers on the board, who have so far described the labor market as broadly solid and have supported a patient approach to adjusting rates so that the central bank can continue to gauge how Trump’s tariffs will impact the economy. That view has frustrated the president, who has repeatedly assailed Powell for not cutting rates sooner.

Waller, a Ph.D. economist, has attracted the attention of Trump’s economic advisers over the past year as the president talked about the economy while on the campaign trail.

Fed Experience

Trump nominated Waller to the Fed in 2020. Before that, he had served as a research director and executive vice president at the St. Louis Fed. In 2020, senators voted 48-47 to support Waller’s nomination to the Fed board.

As a Fed governor in 2022, Waller engaged in a public debate with influential economists outside the Fed, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, with his argument that the central bank could successfully lower the post-pandemic inflation without significantly raising unemployment. In the end, Waller proved right as inflation came back below 3% and unemployment never moved back above 4.2%.

“If you don’t like being criticized, don’t take the job,” Waller said. “The president is free to say what he wants to on policy, just like anybody else.”

Last month, Waller told Bloomberg Television that he hasn’t yet directly heard from the president about the Fed chair role.

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