Hurricane Erin to Menace Eastern US Into the Weekend

Bloomberg Meteorologist Craig Allen discusses the latest path of Hurricane Erin and the impact the storm is expected to have on the US East Coast.

Hurricane Erin is muddling computer models and making forecasters, analysts and traders question the accuracy of the outlook for heat, wind and storms across Europe next week.

Erin, which churned through the Atlantic 330 kilometers (205 miles) off the North Carolina coast on Thursday, is set to create atmospheric ripple effects that could amplify heat and storms in Europe.

The uncertainty has caused key computer weather models to diverge, flip-flopping between best guesses of the storm’s downstream effects. That includes gaps between traditional predictions and ones generated by AI models.

After rapidly and temporarily intensifying into a chart-topping storm, Hurricane Erin is now considered a Category 2, with wind speeds around 165 kilometers-per-hour (103 miles-per-hour), according to an advisory from the US National Hurricane Center.

Erin’s footprint has grown “unusually large” as it has evolved, according to the hurricane center, which warned wind speeds could strengthen on Thursday. The storm isn’t forecast to make landfall in the US or Canada, but it’s set to lash the coast with rough surf and potentially lethal rip tides. Beaches have been closed and ocean swimming banned from North Carolina to New York City.

The storm is expected to steer away from the US coast on Wednesday and march into the Atlantic. Hurricane Erin will eventually degrade into a tropical storm and depression of low-pressure, but the timing, speed and path of its collapse could have markedly different effects in Europe, meteorologists and analysts say.

One of the biggest wildcards is how much, if any, of Hurricane Erin’s remnants get picked up by the jet stream that arcs into Europe.

“The point at which they approach the jet stream can have significant differences,” Aidan McGivern, a meteorologist with the UK Met Office, said in a briefing. “Those that join the jet stream just a little bit earlier than others will get pushed along much quicker.”

The UK Met Office’s forecast model has flipped on the most likely scenario, which now favors Erin turbo-charging the jet stream with warm tropical air, raising the chances of stormier, rainier and windier weather across the UK next week.

Early versions of the Met Office’s model showed a greater possibility of Erin’s low-pressure tracking further south toward the Azores, but a growing number of computer simulations now see it moving further north and closer to the UK.

Other meteorologists — including commercial analysts and government forecast offices in Germany and the Netherlands — say Erin is clouding the outlook due to model disagreements about its path, timing and jet stream interaction.

As the remnants of the hurricane reach the continent next week, they could push a brief blast of heat across central and eastern Europe, said Ben Davis, a meteorologist with MetDesk.

The weather analytics firm sees the system helping boost wind generation in Iberia, France, Italy and the UK, while suppressing wind in Germany, Poland and the Nordics. MetDesk’s analysis favors low solar production across much of Europe as the low-pressure raises the chances for clouds and storms.

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