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Wall Street Stays on Hold With Powell as Wild Card
Posted
September 17, 2025
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September 17, 2025
1,373
20
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1.89%
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3:09Now PlayingAdam Farstrup, Head: Multi-Asset, North America at Schroders previews expectations for today's Fed decision and how the markets are poised to react.
The long-awaited Federal Reserve decision will come out shortly, with traders expecting officials to cut rates for the first time this year and reveal the scope of reductions over the next few months.
That will be key in shaping investor decisions going forward. For now, action is relatively quiet on Wall Street. The S&P 500 wavered near a record, with megacaps losing steam. The dollar remained at the lowest since 2022. Bond yields barely budged.
Traders are broadly expecting a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, and they’re almost certain Jerome Powell will signal further reductions aimed at supporting a saggy labor market.
That setup has helped US stocks power to all-time highs in recent weeks. Fresh economic projections will be published at 2 p.m. in Washington alongside the rate decision, and Powell’s press conference will begin 30 minutes later.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News largely expect officials to pencil in two rate reductions for this year, in line with projections submitted in June. That would imply only one more cut after this week’s meeting, either in October or in December.
While the potential for market-moving surprises is ample, options trading shows bets on a calmer-than-normal reaction. At JPMorgan Chase & Co., Andrew Tyler says the most-likely outcome is the Fed cutting by a quarter point, with the S&P 500 gaining between 0.5% to 1% as long as Powell tilts dovish and signals gradual reductions.
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