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Russia Sanction Indecision Leaves US Allies 'Holding the Bag,' Tannebaum
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October 16, 2025
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3:26Now PlayingDan Tannebaum, Partner and Global Anti-Financial Crime Practice Leader at Oliver Wyman, discusses Russia, broader geopolitical risk, and the vibes at the IMF.
A US-sanctioned liquefied natural-gas plant in Russia’s arctic region has pressed on with fuel shipments as Moscow seeks to circumvent western restrictions and test President Donald Trump.
The Arctic LNG 2 export plant — sanctioned by the Biden administration in 2023 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — appears to be loading its 10th shipment since late-June, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. So far, earlier cargoes have been delivered to a single port in southern China, or a storage facility in Russia’s far east.
While the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing has intensified again in recent days, the US has so far held off on tightening measures against sanctioned Russian LNG. Trump has sought to end the war in Ukraine, and will be meeting Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Washington this week to discuss air defense, long-range weaponry, and energy for the battered nation.
US President Donald Trump said he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hungary at a yet-to-be determined date to try and end the war in Ukraine.
Trump and Putin agreed to the meeting during a two-hour phone call on Thursday. The US and Russia will hold high-level staff talks next week, followed by a leaders summit in Budapest “to see if we can bring this ‘inglorious’ War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end,” Trump posted on social media.
“I believe great progress was made with today’s telephone conversation,” Trump added.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio will represent the US at the initial round of talks, and a location has not yet been decided, Trump said. The leaders discussed US-Russia trade that was possible if the war ends, according to Trump.
The conversation took place a day before Trump’s White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has pressed the US president to sell his country long-range Tomahawk missiles that can strike deeper into Russian territory.
Zelenskiy has said that such attacks would help force Putin into negotiations to end his invasion of Ukraine, now in its fourth year. Trump, too, has recently indicated eagerness to ramp up pressure on the Russian leader, teasing the prospect of allowing Ukraine access to Tomahawks.
Trump said he would share details of his conversation with Putin with Zelenskiy.
Trump is turning his attention to Putin’s military campaign on the heels of securing a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Ending wars in Gaza and Ukraine was a core 2024 campaign promise of Trump’s, and he has vented frustration with Putin over his refusal to halt the fighting or meet Zelenskiy face-to-face for peace talks.
Emboldened by his dealmaking in the Middle East, Trump has expressed renewed confidence he can achieve a similar result in Ukraine. The president has indicated openness to taking more aggressive actions to gain leverage on Putin, which he has previously been reluctant to do.
“I actually believe that the Success in the Middle East will help in our negotiation in attaining an end to the War with Russia/Ukraine,” Trump posted Thursday.
Tomahawks are among the most advanced weapons in the American arsenal, and would allow Kyiv’s forces to expand the range of Russian targets. They are able to hit and increase the pain felt by Moscow. “I might say, ‘Look, if the war’s not going to get settled, I may send them Tomahawks,’” Trump has said.
Putin has warned that supplying Tomahawks to Kyiv “would signal the advent of a totally new stage” in the war and would damage Russia’s relations with the US.
Trump famously boasted during last year’s campaign he could end Russia’s invasion on his first day back in the White House. Despite multiple conversations with Putin — including a summit in Alaska in August — that goal has proved elusive.
“The powerful impetus generated by Anchorage in favor of agreements has been largely exhausted,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said last week.
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