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Oil’s Long-Awaited Surplus Arrives on Billion-Barrel Flotilla
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October 20, 2025
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7:33Now PlayingThe best place to observe the shift taking place in global oil markets is at sea.
More than 1 billion barrels have been amassed on the world’s tanker fleet, according to consultant Vortexa Ltd. It’s the biggest flotilla of oil on the water since 2020, when a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia flooded the market during the Covid-19 pandemic. The phenomenon gives tangible support to long-held predictions that surging production will push the market into surplus. While China has kept the excess hidden for months by scooping up cheap barrels for its strategic reserves, the market finally seems to have reached a tipping point. Crude cargoes from the Middle East are starting to go unsold and key price gauges signal that supply scarcity is ending. International oil futures have sunk to a five-month low near $60 a barrel and top traders are braced for a further slide. Bob McNally founder and president at Rapidan Energy Group, say in the near-term, there will be a glut of oil, but in the coming years, oil prices will go much higher.
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