Mixed Signals in Trump Foreign Policy Muddle Geopolitical Forecasting
January 16, 2026
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5:06Now PlayingMixed Signals in Trump Foreign Policy Muddle Geopolitical Forecasting
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as posted by the channelDr. Lindsay Newman, Geopolitical Risk Expert at GZero Media & Visiting Research Fellow at King's College, examines how mixed signals from Washington complicate geopolitical forecasting.
President Donald Trump’s most loyal backers are fretting over his expansive view of ‘America First’ with some concerned that his recent foreign policy priorities may be betraying the movement.
Trump’s takeover of Venezuela as well as recent threats to annex Greenland and ramped up pressure on Cuba have sparked questions on Capitol Hill and the broader conservative movement on what exactly “America First” means in the context of the US involvement with the rest of the world. Many of Trump’s most loyal backers view America First as counter to decades of globalism and believe the nation should be engaging in foreign military operations only if vital national security interests are at stake.
“‘America First’ means we put America’s interest first,” Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas) said. “We don’t want to start wars. We don’t want to get embroiled in foreign entanglements, but we have to stand up for the United States, for our taxpayer and for our American interests.”
Aside from Venezuela, the Trump administration issued military strikes against ISIS in Nigeria over Christmas, after accusing the Islamic State militants of targeting and killing Christians.
“As much as we’re Christian nationalist and pro-Christian, most people in the America First movement think that’s the type of intervention that just spreads us too thin,” Steve Bannon, a leader of the America First movement and close Trump ally, told Bloomberg Government. “It gets us involved in areas that are really bottomless pits that you can’t solve.”
Despite some frustrations, Bannon said, the MAGA base still largely backs Trump as he has been effective in explaining his rationale for the foreign operations.
Trump has also defended his agenda as operating within the goals of his movement.
“We want to surround ourselves with good neighbors,” Trump said describing his America First views on Venezuela. “We want to surround ourselves with stability. We want to surround ourselves with energy. We have tremendous energy in that country. It’s very important that we protect it. We need that for ourselves. We need that for the world and we want to make sure we can protect it.”
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