GM Sees Up to $2 Billion Profit Jump in 2026, More Buybacks: CEO Mary Barra

General Motors Co. expects profits to grow as much as $2 billion this year and plans to return more of that to shareholders with a higher dividend and buybacks, fueled by demand for its highest-margin vehicles.

Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes this year will range from $13 billion to $15 billion, which is higher than last year’s $12.7 billion, the company said Tuesday in a statement that also detailed fourth-quarter results. GM made $2.51 a share in the latest quarter, a result that easily beat Wall Street analysts’ consensus forecast of $2.28.

The company’s guidance underscores how much sales of pricey new models and a permissive regulatory environment is helping lift profit growth. Even with the US new car market expected to shrink slightly this year and a tariff hit on some imported vehicles on parts, the automaker projects making enough money to boost payments to shareholders

GM’s new guidance rests on selling more of its largest trucks and SUVs such as its GMC Sierra and Cadillac Escalade — and fewer electric vehicles. Legacy automakers are benefitting from President Donald Trump’s efforts to water down Biden-era fuel economy rules, allowing them to sell more gas guzzlers without paying fines or having to buy EV credits from the likes of Tesla Inc.

“GM is executing at a high level,” Alexander Potter, an analyst at Piper Sandler with an “overweight” rating on the stock, said in a research note. “Critically, the company has re-upped its buyback authorization, despite fears that EV charges would impact the pace of repurchases.”

The Detroit-based manufacturer said it authorized $6 billion in share buybacks and an increase in its quarterly dividend by 3 cents to 18 cents a share. GM has bought back more than $20 billion in shares over the past several years, which has helped pushed the stock up to all-time highs

GM now expects to earn between $10.3 and $11.7 billion in net income, up from $2.7 billion in 2025, a year in which the company took massive write downs while downsizing its ailing EV business. Those charges resulted in a $3.3 billion net loss in the fourth quarter, and an unadjusted loss of $3.60 a share.

“We expect the US new vehicle market will continue to be resilient,” GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said in a letter to shareholders. “Looking ahead, we are operating in a US regulatory and policy environment that is increasingly aligned.”

An ongoing buyback plan was in question after the automaker earlier this month said it would take an additional charge related to EVs, bringing its total write-down to some $7.6 billion. The company said it anticipates more material write downs this year, but that they will be significantly smaller than what has been announced.

“We’re going to continue to work to take costs out to get our EV portfolio profitable,” Barra said in an interview with Bloomberg Television, adding the company also plans to offer “a handful” of hybrid gas-electric vehicles.

Revenue in the latest quarter came to $45.3 billion, compared with analysts’ estimates for $45.4 billion. That came after it posted a 6.9% drop in sales last quarter on weaker demand for EVs and cheaper models such as the Chevrolet Trax.

Noting the end of US federal subsidies for EVs last year, Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said it’s unclear how much underlying demand there is for all-electrics in the US.

“I don’t think anyone really knows what the steady state EV demand will be in this new environment,” he told analysts on a conference call.

Jacobson also said tariffs will likely cost the company $3 billion to $4 billion this year, compared with $3.1 billion last year.

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