Power Grid for 67 Million on Edge as Dire Cold Follows Storm

Bloomberg Meteorologist Rob Carolan discusses the frigid temperatures setting in across the US and potential for more snow in the coming week.

A deep freeze is gripping the US in the wake of the worst storm so far this season, leaving the country’s biggest electric grid in emergency status and bracing for record wintertime demand.

PJM Interconnection LLC, which serves 67 million people from New Jersey to Chicago, issued a grid emergency for Tuesday and warned demand will exceed 147 gigawatts, an all-time high for winter. With another burst of frigid air expected Friday, electricity demand could remain above 140 gigawatts — roughly the output of 140 large nuclear reactors — through the end of the month.

Freezing temperatures now cover vast swaths of the US, after a weekend storm canceled flights, blanketed roads with snow and left more than 1 million homes and businesses without power. Reaching deep into the South, the storm even knocked out about 12% of the country’s natural gas production, limiting supplies to power plants and home furnaces that burn the fuel.

“This extreme level of demand coupled with stresses on fuel availability raise a significant risk of emergency conditions that could jeopardize electric reliability and public safety,” Michael Bryson, PJM’s senior vice president for operations, said in a letter Monday to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

PJM’s level-1 emergency means every power plant that serves the region must be ready to run at full capacity. The Energy Department has authorized some plants to run at full tilt, even if they exceed emissions limits. PJM has also asked for authorization to tap backup generators at data centers if needed.

US power grids usually face their biggest challenge running millions of air conditioners during brutal summer heat waves. But they’re increasingly at risk from bone-chilling winter weather.

The problem was highlighted in recent days as a huge storm dumped snow from New Mexico to Maine and blanketed the South in a heavy layer of ice, prompting warnings of potential blackouts. The danger persists as a brutal chill is forecast to linger for days.

In November, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned that rising demand is increasing the risk of winter blackouts. With power consumption climbing 20 gigawatts from last winter, and supply lagging, one big storm could tip the grid into disarray, the regulator warned.

So far, the systems are holding amid the current freeze. Grid operators have pulled many levers to shore up supply, seeking waivers from the US Energy Department to switch on coal plants and step up generating capacity using dirtier fuels

But the worst isn’t over: Extreme cold warnings covered much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Monday, with threats of subzero wind chill in Dallas and Memphis. East of the Rocky Mountains, temperatures may be as much as 40F below normal through early February.

With data centers sucking up power, more homes turning to electric heating and a growing number of industrial users shifting away from fossil fuels, grids are now becoming highly sensitive to cold and ice.

Plus, predicting demand has become harder because storms are becoming more intense, while the adoption of heat pumps and home batteries is still hard to factor into models.

In regions including the Northeast and New England, the grids may see peak demand in the winter by the early 2030s, according to Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Boston.

“That’s going to be this evolutionary change,” he said. “It changes how regulators think about it. It changes how investments are made.”

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