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'We Have Hollowed Out' Institutional Knowledge in Government, Says Rebecca Patterson

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February 18, 2026

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Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater Associates, examines the global economy and leadership changes in both Europe and the US Federal Reserve.

An early departure by Christine Lagarde could narrow the field of candidates vying to succeed her as European Central Bank president.

Lagarde will step down before her term ends in October 2027, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, allowing President Emmanuel Macron to help find a replacement ahead of French elections that could usher in the far right.

While the ECB insisted Lagarde is “totally focused on her mission,” in saying that she “has not taken any decision regarding the end of her term,” it suggested she is indeed considering cutting short her mandate.

A premature exit could give an edge to the established frontrunners for her job — namely former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot and Spain’s Pablo Hernandez de Cos, who currently leads the Bank for International Settlements.

The pair, who analysts polled by Bloomberg see as the favorites, already have a head start on others — including Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel — in terms of campaigning and lobbying.

For Nick Kounis, an economist at ABN Amro, Knot may now be best positioned.

“Timing-wise, Knot has not taken a new big job yet, while de Cos has,” he said. “So an early appointment may favor Knot on the margin.”

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Guests & Subjects Covered

Rebecca Patterson Senior FellowForeign RelationsChief Investment StrategistBridgewater AssociatesUS Federal Reserve AnChristine LagardeEuropean Central BankFinancial Times

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