Nvidia’s Rosy Revenue Forecast Shows the AI Boom Remains Strong

Bloomberg Tech Host Ed Ludlow and Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst at Seaport Research Partners react to this quarter's Nvidia earnings.

Nvidia Corp., the world’s most valuable company, gave another bullish quarterly revenue forecast, signaling that the massive build-out of AI computing remains on track.

Fiscal first-quarter sales will be about $78 billion, the chipmaker said in a statement Wednesday. That compares with an average Wall Street estimate of $72.8 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Nvidia Corp., the dominant maker of artificial intelligence chips, suffered its worst stock decline in three months after the company’s latest forecast failed to dispel fears of an AI bubble.

The shares fell as much as 5.6% to $184.58 in New York, marking the biggest intraday drop since Nov. 25. The decline followed a first-quarter sales outlook that — on its face — looked impressive. Nvidia easily beat the average analyst estimate and delivered a 73% surge in fourth-quarter revenue.

The reaction was a stark reminder of the skepticism now surrounding Nvidia. After explosive sales growth turned the chipmaker into the world’s most valuable company, investors are seeking stronger assurances that booming AI spending can be maintained.

Shareholders have lingering questions over “whether the current AI spending wave can sustain growth beyond the next few years, and whether Nvidia will remain as dominant as AI shifts from training models to running everyday tasks,” analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown said in a note after the results.  Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang pushed back on the concerns during a conference call Wednesday, arguing that customers are already making money from their newly acquired computing power. That’s why clients will keep investing at elevated levels, he said.

“You need compute capacity, and that translates directly to growth, and that translates directly to revenues,” Huang said. “I’m confident their cash flows are growing.” Investor Michael Burry, made famous by The Big Short, added to the worries on Thursday. He noted that Nvidia has purchase obligations of $95.2 billion, compared with $16.1 billion a year earlier. That could be risky if demand wavers.

Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress tried to defuse other concerns raised by analysts, including the specter of supply constraints. The company has secured enough components to be able to meet growing demand, she said.

It remains a challenge to produce enough of Nvidia’s most advanced chips, she told analysts. But the company’s current Blackwell lineup — and an upcoming successor, called Rubin — will still beat earlier sales projections, Kress said. Nvidia had previously said that the chips would generate $500 billion by the end of 2026.

“We believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to address future demand, including shipments extending into calendar 2027,” she said.

Nvidia still faces uncertainty in China, the largest market for chips. The US government has granted licenses to ship a small amount of H200 processors to customers there, but Nvidia doesn’t know if the Chinese government will give its approval, Kress said. For now, the company will continue to exclude data center revenue in China from its forecasts.

The small-scale license provided by the Trump administration requires the chips to go through a US inspection before they can be shipped to customers, Nvidia said. And the processors are subject to a 25% tariff when they come into the US.

--------

Watch Bloomberg Radio LIVE on YouTube

Weekdays 7am-6pm ET

Follow us on X

Subscribe to our Podcasts:

Bloomberg Daybreak

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Intelligence

Balance of Power

Bloomberg Businessweek

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app:

Apple CarPlay

Android Auto

Visit our YouTube channels:

Bloomberg Podcasts

Bloomberg Television

Bloomberg Originals