Trump’s Iran War Widens, Forcing Reluctant Allies to Choose

In just over 48 hours since the US and Israel began striking Iran, the conflict has widened fast. Countries that say they aren’t part of it are already being pulled in as their bases, infrastructure and citizens are exposed to retaliation. At some point, America’s allies will have to choose. How much US activity do they host? How far do they stretch “defensive” support? What do they do when their own territory is struck? The longer the fighting drags on, the harder it becomes to stay on the sidelines. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar have already begun lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to keep military operations against Iran short, according to people familiar with the matter. The countries hope to build a coalition to advance a swift diplomatic end to the conflict, the people said, to prevent more escalation and a prolonged energy price shock. CSIS Middle East Program Director and Senior Adviser Mona Yacoubian joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. She speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Just three days into the conflict, the Iran war has become attritional. Waves of drone attacks by the Islamic Republic are putting pressure on the defenses of the US and its partners from Bahrain to the United Arab Emirates, depleting weapons stockpiles. The outcome of the fight may depend on which side runs out of munitions first.

Shahed-136 one-way attack drones, small, rudimentary cruise missiles, continued to pound targets across the Middle East on Monday. The drones have in recent days hit US bases, oil infrastructure and civilian buildings, since the US and Israel air strikes on Iran — a barrage of cruise missiles, drones and precision-guided bombs — began on Saturday.

US-made Patriot air-defense missiles have been largely successful in stopping the Iranian Shaheds and other ballistic missiles, with interception rates over 90%, according to the UAE. But using $4 million missiles to destroy $20,000 drones illustrates a problem that has haunted Western military planners since early in the Ukraine war: The cheap weapons can chew up resources meant for much more complex threats. he result is that both Iran and the US may run low on weapons in a matter of days or weeks. Whoever can last longer will gain a serious advantage.

Iran’s regional proxies were severely weakened by the war in Gaza and its missile capabilities damaged by the earlier Israel-US attacks in a 12-day war in June. Since then the emphasis for Iran has been to escalate its warnings about the consequences and costs of a Trump strike, knowing that his supporters are broadly opposed to drawn-out, messy wars. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — who died in Saturday’s air strikes — warned that a US attack would lead to wider conflagration embroiling the whole region.

“Attrition strategy makes operational sense from Iran’s perspective,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think-tank. “They are calculating the defenders will exhaust their interceptors and the political will of Gulf states will crack and put pressure on the US and Israel to cease operations before they run out of missiles and drones.”

Qatar’s stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles will last four days at the current rate of use, according to an internal analysis seen by Bloomberg News. Doha has been privately urging a swift end to the conflict.

Qatar’s International Media Office said in a statement that the “inventory of Patriot interceptor missiles held by the Qatar Armed Forces has not been depleted and remains well-stocked.”

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