Blinken Surprised Iran Is Attacking Its Neighbors

Former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says an off-ramp with Iran will be governed by two factors: munitions and markets. In an interview with Bloomberg’s David Gura for the Big Take podcast, Blinken noted that a striking feature of this conflict is the extent to which Iran has involved its neighbors.  Real change in Iran will require a sustained US military focus in the Middle East that could wear down US weapons stockpiles and leave it vulnerable to attacks from other adversaries such as Russia and China, former Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

The top diplomat in Joe Biden’s administration told Bloomberg Big Take podcast host David Gura on Wednesday he worries about a scenario where “we so deplete our arsenal, and it takes a long time to rebuild it, that that puts us in a disadvantageous position when it comes to, say, a China or a Russia.”

His remarks come on the fifth day of combat operations after the US and Israel launched a war with Iran and as concerns grow that this conflict could end up becoming a war of attrition.

“They want to try to inflict so much pain that we can’t sustain the effort,” Blinken said of the Iranians. But ultimately, whether the US can continue will depend on “markets and munitions,” he said. The US has already used up a number of $4 million missiles to destroy Iran’s $20,000 drones, for example. Top defense contractors including Lockheed Martin Corp. and RTX Corp. are set to meet at the White House on Friday as the Pentagon pushes to speed weapons production.

Blinken ran the State Department when Hamas militants struck Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and made around a dozen trips to the Middle East as Israel waged war on Iran-backed proxy groups, spoke as Tehran has lashed out and hit a number of US allies in the Persian Gulf.

He warned that without buy-in from the American people to support continued war efforts, including potentially putting American boots on the ground to try and ensure a positive change in Tehran’s government, “most of that stuff ultimately can be rebuilt,” Blinken added.

“The president could theoretically declare victory tomorrow and claim that severe damage was done to the regime — to the missiles, to the nuclear program, to the navy — and call it a day,” Blinken said. “But then for what?”

Still, some of the consequences of the attacks could be positive, Blinken said. citing the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as a scenario where Iran’s nuclear program is obliterated.

“If — very big if — this does produce some kind of real change in Iran, you have the prospect of a region that heads in a very different direction,” Blinken said.

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