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Emerging Markets 'in Deep Trouble' on Long-Term Oil Disruption, Says Ed Morse
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March 12, 2026
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13:56Now PlayingEd Morse, Senior Advisor at Hartree Partners, discusses energy market disruption and the efficacy of strategic petroleum reserve releases.
Iran launched a fresh wave of attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, briefly pushing crude back above $100 a barrel and intensifying what the world’s energy watchdog called the biggest oil market disruption in history.
Strikes on two vessels off the coast of Iraq prompted the nation’s oil terminals to suspend operations, in an escalation that’s likely to leave global shipowners even less willing to consider crossing the vital Strait of Hormuz. A container ship was also hit near the United Arab Emirates.
The longer the conflict drags on, the bigger the impact on energy markets that have already seen fuel prices soar, with some parts of the world experiencing shortages. Iran’s new supreme leader and US President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down.
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said in his first public comments since succeeding his father that Hormuz should remain closed, while Trump said stopping Iran from having nuclear weapons was more important than oil prices. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, meanwhile, said military escorts were unlikely to start until the end of the month.
Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers have been forced to slash oil output in recent days, and are racing to implement workarounds to export barrels outside of Hormuz. The strait — which handles about of a fifth of the world’s oil flows — has been effectively closed since the war broke out, choking off commodity supplies to the rest of the world.
Prices of fuels like diesel and jet fuel are surging as refineries in the region reduce production or shut completely, while fuel makers elsewhere balk at high crude prices. The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that the conflict will slash global oil supply by 8 million barrels a day this month — the largest-ever disruption to output. Brent crude rose near $100 a barrel as traders weighed the outlook for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil typically flows.
Three commercial vessels were struck within the Arabian Gulf over the past day, suggesting the broadening of a campaign of maritime disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations. Investors see a return to normal shipping flows through Middle Eastern waters as critical to restoring balance in energy markets.
Earlier, the global oil benchmark surged more than 10% to $101.59 a barrel. Prices eased from those intraday highs after the AFP reported that Iran said it allowed some ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran also told the news agency that it is not laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a concern for traders watching for a restart of flows through the critical waterway.
Prices also eased earlier on a Bloomberg News report that the Trump administration plans to issue temporary waivers for a maritime law requiring American-built ships be used to transport goods between US ports. The 30-day waivers for the Jones Act would allow foreign tankers to help supply refiners on the East Coast with fuel from the Gulf Coast and elsewhere in the US, in a bid to rein in surging oil prices.
Still, signals on when flows through the Strait might resume remain mixed. Earlier in the session, Iran’s new supreme leader said the waterway should stay closed. Traffic through the Strait has been effectively halted since the war began, and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said military escorts were unlikely to start until the end of the month.
Trump posted on his Truth Social network that the US makes a lot of money when oil prices rise and that Iran not having nuclear weapons is “of far greater importance to me.”
The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that the current supply disruption is the largest in the history of the global oil market. Wild price swings are also being exacerbated by financial flows from options markets to exchange-traded funds.
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