What It Means If Trump Loses Control of His War

US President Donald Trump appears to be losing control of the war with Iran that he started. More than three weeks in, Tehran remains defiant and has lashed out more fiercely at Gulf neighbors than Trump expected. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, and even America’s closest allies have refused his request to help reopen it. Israel has launched attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure — Trump claims — without Washington’s knowledge, prompting an attack on Qatar that has taken 17% of its LNG export capacity offline for three to five years. So where does that put Trump? The conflict’s current trajectory looks untenable as the economic, political and military costs mount. Bloomberg Economics Senior Geoeconomics Analyst for Asia-Pacific Adam Farrar joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. He speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. President Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” US military efforts against Iran, saying that the US was close to achieving its objectives as the conflict, which has roiled financial markets and the region, nears a fourth week.

“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East,” Trump said in a social-media post on Friday. He cast those objectives as “Completely degrading” Iran’s missile capabilities, “destroying” the country’s defense industrial base, eliminating their navy and air force, never allowing Tehran to get close to a “Nuclear Capability” and protecting Middle Eastern allies.

Trump’s comments came shortly after he ruled out a ceasefire and kept the door open to deploying ground troops, highlighting how the president continues to send wildly divergent signals about his objectives and plans for the US and Israeli war on Iran.

It is also unclear how Iran would respond to any unilateral decision by the US to pause strikes after recent attacks that targeted the country’s energy infrastructure and killed more high-profile officials, including security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have become reluctant to even discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran continues to launch retaliatory strikes at Gulf Arab neighbors.  Trump also addressed the strait, a critical waterway that carries roughly a fifth of global oil and natural gas flows and has been all but closed since hostilities began. Trump has been pressuring allies to help the US secure the strait militarily but indicated Friday that he will leave that effort to other nations.

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump said. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

Trump’s suggestion that the nations most reliant on Mideast energy and other goods shipped through the strait should have the responsibility of policing it belies the global reach of the oil market.

Even though the US is pumping a record amount of oil, crude prices are set in a world market, so supply shocks tied to the strait will ripple from Beijing to Washington, affecting consumers in the US. The US may be more immune from the physical shock of millions of barrels not making it to market — but it remains intractably tied to the price impacts.

Trump’s comments capped a tumultuous Friday in financial markets following a Bloomberg News report that an increasingly dug-in Iranian regime was refusing to negotiate over Hormuz and with reports the US is preparing options to deploy ground troops.

Earlier: Iran Unwilling to Talk About Hormuz as Regime Digs In

Oil prices surged again Friday with global benchmark Brent closing above $112 a barrel, the highest since mid-2022. Prices eased to trade near $108 a barrel in thin post-settlement trading on Trump’s comments about possibly winding down the conflict.

Global stocks extended their losses, with the US equity benchmark falling steeply to end the week nearly 2% lower.

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