S&P 500 Set for Record High on Earnings; Oil Gains

Aoifinn Devitt, Managing Director: Global Wealth at Moneta Group, discusses redemption pressure in private credit funds, as well as her experience running the Boston Marathon.

A slew of strong corporate profits lifted stocks a day after President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, though attempts to resolve the conflict struggled without any signs that the key Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. Oil climbed.

The nearly 1% advance in the S&P 500 sent the gauge toward a fresh record, with big tech leading the charge. Boeing Co. jumped after delivering the most aircraft in the first quarter since 2019. Other giants from Tesla Inc. to Texas Instruments Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. are due to report results Wednesday. Brent crude hit $100. Bitcoin topped $79,000. Bond yields and the dollar fell.

After Trump indefinitely extended a truce with Iran, the key question is whether the two sides can reach a deal to end a war that has rattled markets and sparked a global energy crunch.

Tensions remain high as Tehran continues to maintain a tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz, controlling passage through the crucial trade route and firing on ships, and as the US refuses to lift its blockade on Iranian-linked vessels.

Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran for three to five days, not indefinitely, Fox News reported, citing a White House official. A second round of talks may be coming as soon as Friday, the New York Post reported, citing the US president and Pakistani sources it didn’t name.

What we have is a situation that’s technically “calm and chaotic” at the same time, according to Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth.

“While the Iran conflict is ongoing, my sense is that investors are already starting to look through it and focus on what really matters,” he said. “We’ve seen this movie before — the headlines hit, the market reacts, volatility spikes, and then it settles down and refocuses on fundamentals.” Strong corporate profits, the revival of the artificial-intelligence trade and an otherwise resilient economy have buoyed stocks despite lingering geopolitical risks. About 81% of the S&P 500 companies reporting first-quarter results have beaten analyst earnings estimates so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While there is still uncertainty and saber rattling over the Iran conflict, markets are forward-looking, noted Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.

“It’s possible that we see a continuation of negative headlines, ultimatums and deadlines for negotiations, but that doesn’t mean that stocks will react meaningfully to each one, since markets already priced-in the worst of the conflict,” he said.

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