Chasov Yar Falls to Russia Pokrovsk May be Next w/Steve Jermy

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Danny argues that Russia has consistently offered diplomatic terms throughout the conflict, but each time the West has refused, prompting Russia to escalate and tighten its demands. They suggest Russia’s core goal is securing its national security, with “denazification” being difficult but less central than ensuring strategic stability.

The minimum Russian objective is seen as reaching and holding the Dnieper River. The maximum could include pushing west of the river, potentially cutting off Odesa without directly storming it—effectively isolating and shrinking Ukraine to a “rump state.” Russia would then contain what remains of Ukraine rather than occupy it, leaving Western-aligned Ukrainians and ultranationalists isolated from the rest.

This would represent a reverse containment strategy against NATO, reminiscent of George Kennan’s Cold War doctrine—except now it’s Russia seeking to isolate and outlast a declining West. Russia is increasingly disengaged from Europe economically, and instead, it is deepening alliances with countries to the East and Global South (e.g., China, India, Iran, BRICS).

Militarily, Russia is described as advancing methodically but effectively, avoiding costly urban combat where possible and instead seeking to encircle and exhaust Ukrainian forces. Specific examples include recent Russian gains near Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka, and advances near Kupyansk and the Kherson front. Russia is employing a fluid, adaptive strategy—likened to a leaking dam—probing for weak points in Ukraine’s defenses and advancing steadily once they appear.

The analysis projects that Russia is likely to continue this approach until it secures its desired territorial and security outcomes. While it's unlikely the war ends in weeks, the speaker expects that by this time next year, Russia will have broadly achieved its goals, barring unforeseen changes. The West, meanwhile, is seen as failing to adapt, possibly facing economic and strategic decline as a result.