Ukraine Russia War - What is China Learning? /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jennifer Kavanagh

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Summary: China–Taiwan Conflict and U.S. Strategy

Core Argument:

There’s a widespread belief that if China seizes Taiwan, it will expand further into the region (e.g., Japan, the Philippines). However, analysts argue this is unlikely because:

Taiwan is viewed by China as a domestic issue, unlike Okinawa or Luzon.

Geography and military logistics make other invasions significantly harder.

Amphibious invasions are highly complex and risky, and China cannot guarantee air superiority even over Taiwan.

Military Perspective:

China would struggle to invade Japan or Korea, and even Taiwan poses serious risks.

Amphibious invasions without air superiority historically fail ~87% of the time.

The PLA is risk-averse, especially after witnessing Russia's war in Ukraine.

A drawn-out conflict could destabilize China domestically.

U.S.–China–Taiwan Tensions:

Tensions have escalated since Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit and Mike Pompeo’s calls for formal U.S. recognition of Taiwan.

China sees any moves toward Taiwan independence as a red line and grounds for war.

Chinese state media warns of "self-destruction" if Taiwan declares independence.

U.S. Strategic Thinking:

Taiwan has become central to U.S.–China competition.

U.S. hawks view Taiwan as symbolic of U.S. global leadership and credibility.

Escalatory U.S. rhetoric is used to project resolve, but critics argue that angering China isn't effective deterrence.

Military Feasibility:

Defending Taiwan would be extremely difficult due to China's proximity and missile/naval buildup.

Some analysts believe the U.S. cannot win a war over Taiwan and would be dragged into a costly, possibly endless or nuclear, conflict.

China could blockade Taiwan, slowly choking it off without full invasion.

U.S. munitions and stockpiles are already dangerously low due to commitments in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Strategic Assessment:

Even if the U.S. could defend Taiwan, some argue it shouldn't because:

The costs would be astronomical (trillions of dollars, tens of thousands of casualties).

Taiwan’s strategic value doesn’t justify those costs.

A Chinese takeover wouldn’t collapse U.S. alliances or block economic access to Asia.

Conclusion:

While Taiwan is geopolitically significant, a war over it could devastate the U.S. and China alike.

Some experts advocate for restraint, better deterrence strategy, and realistic assessment of interests and capabilities.