Col Jacques Baud: FATAL MISCALCULATION by NATO & Trump

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

The discussion emphasizes that Russia’s primary military strategy in Ukraine is not territorial conquest but the systematic destruction of Ukrainian forces—a principle rooted in Russian military doctrine. This approach has led to massive Ukrainian losses, forcing Kyiv to depend heavily on Western military aid since mid-2022. Despite new tanks and equipment (e.g., Abrams, Leopard 2), the 2023 counteroffensive failed, and Ukraine now faces severe manpower shortages, continuous restructuring of its command system, and low troop morale. Reports suggest desertion rates of around 700 soldiers per day, and over 125,000 cases since January 2023.

Meanwhile, President Zelensky continues pursuing NATO alignment and resisting negotiations, even though his military is being degraded beyond recovery. Analysts argue this persistence is driven by his desire to maintain power rather than realistic assessment, likening it to psychological or irrational behavior. Early in the war, Zelensky appeared willing to negotiate (March 2022 talks), which might have prevented Russia’s deep presence in Ukraine. Now, negotiations are complicated by questions of Zelensky’s legitimacy to sign agreements.

The consensus: prolonging the war only worsens Ukraine’s position, while Russia’s strength and objectives remain clear. Ultimately, the conflict appears destined to end on Russian terms unless a dramatic shift occurs in Ukrainian or Western strategy.